Vale estimates a deficit of 70 million tonnes of high-quality iron ore by 2030

It is reported on August 30th that Vale estimates that the supply gap of high-quality iron ore for low-carbon production may expand to 70 million tons by 2030 due to the need for global steel production to be carbon-neutral by 2030.
Vale estimates that global steel production will increase from approximately 1.9 billion tons currently to approximately 2.09 billion tons by 2030. Of which, Chinese steel production is estimated at approximately 970 million tons; steel production in India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa is estimated at approximately 410 million tons; steel production in Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and other countries is estimated at approximately 710 million tons.
With more than 70 countries around the world committed to achieving net-zero emission targets, the decarbonization process of the steel industry will require approximately 100 billion US dollars of investment. Vale expects that the decarbonization of the steel industry will go through the following steps: reducing emissions by 15% through improved production efficiency, reducing emissions by 15% to 60% using low-carbon fuels and carbon capture technology, and achieving near-zero emissions by using 100% green hydrogen.
Vale estimates that demand for low-quality iron ore will decline from approximately 900 million tons in 2022 to approximately 570 million tons in 2030. Meanwhile, demand for high-quality direct-reduced iron will increase from approximately 40 million tons in 2022 to approximately 110 million tons in 2030. In addition, demand for high-quality pellets, briquettes, and lumps is also expected to increase from approximately 600 million tons in 2022 to approximately 860 million tons in 2030.
Vale has also launched a new type of iron ore briquette, which can reduce carbon emissions by 80% compared to traditional briquettes in production. Currently, Vale has signed cooperation memorandums with over 30 customers and plans to establish a production center in the Middle East to produce hot-pressed iron (HBI) to supply local and overseas markets.

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